China’s Macroeconomic Outlook: Quarterly Forecast and by CMR of Xiamen University

By CMR of Xiamen University

This ebook is a quarterly forecast and research record at the chinese language economic system. it's released two times a 12 months and provides ongoing outcome from the “China Quarterly Macroeconomic version (CQMM),” a learn undertaking on the heart for Macroeconomic learn (CMR) at Xiamen collage. according to the CQMM version, the study workforce forecast significant macroeconomic symptoms for the following eight quarters, together with the speed of GDP development, the CPI, fixed-asset funding, resident intake and overseas exchange. whilst it specializes in simulation of present macroeconomic guidelines in China.  as well as assisting readers comprehend China’s fiscal development and coverage consultant, this publication has 3 major pursuits: to assist readers comprehend China’s fiscal functionality; to forecast the most macroeconomic symptoms for the following eight quarters; and to simulate the effectiveness of macroeconomic guidelines.

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Extra resources for China’s Macroeconomic Outlook: Quarterly Forecast and Analysis Report, September 2014 (Current Chinese Economic Report Series)

Sample text

51 % in 2014, a small drop over the previous year. 80 %, which will squeeze the space of using micro-stimulus policies further, constrain the growth of residential income, and the inflation rate will go up. 35 % over the previous year. And as wages rise and CNY appreciates, the growth rate of export will slow down. 97 percentage points over the previous year. 39 percentage points over the previous year. 9 Calculated at the current price. Calculated at current USD. 10 Chapter 4 Policy Simulations In the first half of 2014, China’s economic growth slowed down.

3 The change of urban fixed asset investment (Note: baseline denotes the baseline simulation of urban fixed asset investment growth rate; scenario denotes the new urban fixed asset investment growth rate under scenario assumption (year-on-year, after seasonal adjustment)) compared to baseline, which is significantly smaller than the decline in investment growth rate. This is attributed to the fact that consumption is not directly affected by the impact of money supply, and may even be benefit from price decrease caused by less money supply.

1 Export, Import, and Foreign Exchange Reserve Growth The Model predicts that in 2014, due to the accelerating recovery of the US economy and the alleviation of uncertainty of economies of the Euro-zone, China’s import and export growths will restore. 97 percentage points over the previous year. 1). 93 % in the fourth quarter. 59 % in the fourth quarter. 75 % in 2014. In 2015, the external demand is expected to be stable. 1, Fig. 6). 57 % over precious year (Fig. 7). In 2015, affected by a new round of urbanization, urban investment demand will further increase.

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